Below are only highlights of the Salt Lake market. For further information and details on the Salt Lake, Summit, Weber, Davis, Utah, and Washington Counties.
Read the full 2009 Mid-Year Market Review. Visit www.commercecrg.com.
DETAILS BY SALT LAKE REAL ESTATE SECTOR
Salt Lake County Office
Current situation:
Office market vacancy has continued in the upward trend
established last year. Direct vacancy increased to 13.6 percent at mid-year
2009, a 20.5 percent jump from the comparable period 12 months ago. The
pendulum is swinging towards a tenant-driven market.
Forecast:
Economic conditions in Utah will continue to outshine the
national average. While Utah has not been immune to declines in the economy as
a whole, the state is experiencing fewer problems than those seen in other
markets. Vacancy will continue to rise though the remainder of
2009. Office vacancy will likely increase to over 15 percent by year’s
end. New office construction will slow.
Salt Lake County Retail
Current situation:
Although retail activity in the Salt Lake area slowed
considerably during the first six months of 2009, the market continues to
outperform most national peers. Total market vacancy edged upward, due
primarily to store closures undertaken by national retail chains. Vacancy
increased from 8.31 to 8.50 percent over the past six months, as troubled
retailers shuttered stores in Utah along with the rest of the country. Developers
have judiciously reigned in new retail construction. Many cities have
banked on new retail development as a ready means of additional revenue. The
decline in construction, along with a sharp reduction in proceeds generated by
retail sales taxes, is contributing to mandatory budget cutbacks and will
likely lead to increased fees and taxes.
Forecast:
Discount retailers and those perceived to provide solid
value will outshine other categories.
Widespread closures by national retail chains have begun to
slow. The wave of nationwide closures by tenants such as Linens ‘N Things,
Mervyn’s, Steve & Barry’s, Harold’s and Bally Fitness appears to be
abating.
Salt Lake County Multi-family Dwellings
Current situation:
The apartment vacancy rate in Salt Lake County at mid-year
2009 was 7.2 percent, a significant increase over the 4.6 percent rate reported
at mid-year 2008. The recession and job losses have made for a very difficult
rental market. Managers report that job losses have been the principal
cause of higher vacancy rates. Salt Lake County has 98,000 renter households.
If 4,000 of these households lose their jobs—not unlikely given the level of
job loss—and move back with family or friends, the vacancy rate rises by four
percent.
Forecast:
Job losses are expected throughout the rest of 2009 and the
local economy will not see much in the way of a recovery until well into 2010.
In addition there are several new apartment projects planned in Salt Lake
County which will add to the supply of rental units and competition.
Salt Lake County Industrial
Current situation:
The lease market for industrial properties has fallen
dramatically this year. While a slowdown in industrial activity had been anticipated,
the scale of the decline is much greater than expected. When it comes to sales
of industrial properties, there have been improvements over the past six
months, much better than in 2008 when sales were the worst in a decade.
Construction of industrial properties has come to a near standstill.
Forecast:
Industrial vacancy will increase through the remainder of
2009. Corporate restructuring and scalebacks by national and regional tenants
will impact Utah, as several large users have indicated their intent to shutter
or greatly reduce the size of their operations in the state.
Salt Lake County Investment
Current situation:
The investment market has continued to decline. A decline in
property values persisted during the first six months of 2009. The number of
completed investment sales transactions is down by 48 percent, spanning all
types of commercial properties. A corresponding decline in sales volume has
been even more dramatic, with year-to-date sales representing a 60 percent drop
from the same period in 2008. The dearth of financing opportunities
continues to exert a stranglehold on investment activity. Banks and other
lenders are taking extraordinary measures to forestall the day of reckoning;
writing extensions, negotiating with tenants and extending contracts on a
month-to-month basis.
Forecast:
Utah is better positioned than peer markets to weather the
current economic storm. Continued turmoil among lenders is likely to spur
further declines in commercial real estate investment activity in 2009.